Ollanta Humala - The Big Unknown
The presidential elections in Peru are only less than 3 months away (April 9) and we\'ve reached halftime now since the first national voters survey was conducted. The graphic below the left shows the astonishing shift in voter\'s opinion since then.
Peru Election SurveyOllanta Humala has become the frontrunner, according to a poll by Apoyo published in El Comercio. 28 per cent of respondents would support the Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) candidate.

Lourdes Flores Nano of the Popular Christian Party (PPC) is second with 25 per cent, followed by former president Alan García of the American Revolutionary People’s Alliance (APRA) with 15 per cent, and former head of state, Valentín Paniagua, of Popular Action (AP) with 10 per cent. Support is lower for Jaime Salinas of National Justice (JN) and Martha Chávez of New Majority (NM).

In a two-candidate runoff, however, Flores still had a 46-39 percent edge. The top two candidates will have a runoff if none of the 23 candidates wins a first-round majority.

Ollanta Humala\'s increasing popularity is prompting fear that Latin America\'s commitment to market-based reforms is waning and it has rattled Peru\'s financial markets. Humala, a former military officer and left-wing opponent of free trade and free-market policies, recently proclaimed deep admiration for the 1968-75 leftist dictatorship of Peruvian Gen. Juan Velasco, who carried out a largely failed agrarian reform, nationalized industries and forged close military ties with the Soviet Union. His economic plans unsettle many in the middle and upper classes. And some voters worry that members of his Indian-descended family are avowed racists and ultranationalists. His father describes himself as a Marxist, expresses admiration for Hitler and believes Peru\'s Indians and mestizos should rule. Humala insists he does not share their extremist beliefs.

He has the support of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez. His rapid growth in popularity and close association with Chávez and recently elected president of Bolivia, Evo Morales, reflects the emergence of a more radical and populist left in Latin America, particularly in the impoverished Andean region.

Humala, a (now retired) Army Lieutenant Colonel, led an uprising in Toquepala against then President Alberto Fujimori in October 2000. The main reason for the rebellion was the return to Peru of Vladimiro Montesinos, the former intelligence chief, who had fled Peru in search of asylum in Panama after having been caught on video trying to bribe an opposition MP. This lead to increasing fears that he still maintained considerable power in the Peruvian government.
Humala and about 60 other Peruvian soldiers revolted against senior Army Commanders. By the end of the rebellion however, many of Humala\'s men would desert him leaving him with only 7 men. During the revolt Humala had called on Peruvian \"patriots\" to join him in the rebellion, and some 300 former soldiers answered his call. His revolt also was able to gain considerable sympathy from the Peruvian populace with the influential left-of-center newspaper La Republica calling him \"valiant and decisive, unlike most in Peru\". The newspaper also had many letters sent in by readers with accolades to Ollanta and his men.
In the aftermath the Army had sent out hundreds of soldiers to try and capture Humala and his remaining men. They had managed to stay in hiding long enough for the political situation to change, with President Fujimori being impeached from office and Valentin Paniagua being made interim president.
This gave him the ability to come out of hiding and releasing a statement officially calling off the rebellion. Humala and his men would march to Lima and swear their allegiance to Paniagua.
He was pardoned by Congress and was allowed to return to military duty. He was sent to Paris then to South Korea until December 2004, when he was forcibly retired. His being forced out of the army is suspected to have been part of the motivation behind his brother, Antauro, leading another etnocacerista rebellion in January 2005.
Ollanta and his brother are the foremost leaders of the \"Movimiento Etnocacerista\", an ethnic nationalist group composed of former and current Peruvian soldiers. The name \"etnocacerista\" refers to 19th century Peruvian president and war hero Andrés Avelino Cáceres. During the War of the Pacific, Cáceres led the Peruvian resistance against Chilean occupying forces.
Etnocaceristas strongly embrace their Incan heritage, nationalization of the country\'s industries, the reintroduction of the death penalty, the legalization of coca cultivation, and a strong anti-Chilean stance particularly against Chilean investors which many etnocaceristas claim are manipulating the country\'s economy.
The name etnocacerista itself is composed of two parts, the first evoking ethnic identity and strong identification with the country\'s Incan Native American origins. The second part of the name \"cacerista\" refers to 19th century Peruvian president and war hero Andrés Avelino Cáceres. During the War of the Pacific, Cáceres led the Peruvian resistance against Chilean occupying forces.
Etnocaceristas strongly embrace their Incan heritage, nationalization of the country\'s industries, the reintroduction of the death penalty, the legalization of coca cultivation, and a strong anti-Chilean stance particularly against Chilean investors which many etnocaceristas claim are manipulating the country\'s economy.

POR FAVOR CAROLA POR RESPETO AL PUEBLO PERUANO Y ESTE FORO DEBES ENVIAR DATOS EN QUECHUA O AYMARA O EN ESPAÑOL POR QUE ESE ES NUESTRO IDIOMA DE ORIGEN.

SALUDOS

CAROLA, FIRST OF ALL, I WOULD SUGGEST UPDATING YOUR STATS, IT SEEMS THAT THEY ARE FROM THE POLL TAKEN TWO WEEKS AGO. NUMBERS HAVE CHANGED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS.
AS FAR AS TIME, STILL A LONG WAY TO GO, WE HAVE NOT FINISHED THE FIRST QUARTER YET. I BELIEVE, THAT STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE VOTERS TO MAKE UP THEIR MINDS. HUMALA IS LIKE A FART, MAKES A NOISE STINKS AND THEN DISAPPEARS. HUMALA MIGHT LOOK LIKE AN UNKNOWN, HOWEVER, HE IS THE MOST MACHIAVELLIAN AMONG ALL THE CANDIDATES. BE AWARE OF HOW HE HAS DECEIVED HIS OWN PARTY AND ARBITRARILY HE HAS SELECTED THE PRE CANDIDATES FOR CONGRESS, JUST A TIP FOR FURTHER RESEARCH.

AS FAR AS WRITING IN ENGLISH, PAY NO ATTENTION TO THOSE WHO HAVE THE AUDACITY TO EVEN IMPLY THAT YOU CANNOT WRITE IN THE LANGUAGE OF YOUR CHOICE. AS A REMINDER THIS IS A FREE BOARD WHERE FREE SPEECH IS THE RULE OF THE GAME AND WHO DOES NOT LIKE IT TOO BAD. GOOD POSTING THOUGHT, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.